RBA unlikely to steal show from horse race

Feb 01 2019 Published by under 深圳桑拿网

Borrowers can have a flutter on the gee-gees confident they won’t be stung by an interest rate hike.


The Reserve Bank will hold its traditional Melbourne Cup Day board meeting on Tuesday, but economists expect it will be a horse leading the evening news.

The RBA’s cash rate is expected to remain at an all-time low of 2.5 per cent, where it has been since August 2013, especially after a run of benign inflation readings.

“We don’t see any rise in interest rates for a considerable period of time,” Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry head Kate Carnell told reporters in Canberra on Monday.

The chamber’s September quarter business survey found economic expectations falling for a third consecutive quarter.

Ms Carnell blamed worries over the budget deficit and the belief it’s going to be hard to correct without impacting on business activity

This is weighing on confidence to employ and invest, despite actual business conditions improving for seven quarters in a row.

A similar tale was told by the Australian Industry Group’s performance of manufacturing index, which found conditions remain patchy.

Despite the fall in the Australian dollar since September, respondents believe it’s still too high when competition from imports “remains intense”, Ai Group boss Innes Willox says.

Yet a third survey did offer some hope to job seekers.

The ANZ’s job advertisement series rose for a fifth straight month in October, which should feed into employment growth outcomes and stabilise the jobless rate.

ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said such forward job indicators would attract greater attention while the Australian Bureau Statistics sorts out its labour force survey problems that have resulted in extremely volatile outcomes.

Its latest jobs data effort is released on Thursday.

One area the RBA has raised concerns is the strength of investor demand “unbalancing” the housing market, prompting the possible introduction of so-called macro-prudential controls to limit lending.

David Lane, director of wealth management at Pitcher Partners, says such talk appears to be premature given other data showing an 11 per cent tumble in building approvals in September.

This, along with the full-year profit results of the ANZ, National Australia Bank and Westpac, did not suggest an over-heating housing cycle, he told AAP.

Comments are off for this post